09/10/2025
Rising copper prices after Indonesian mine disaster: what this means for you
On 8 September 2025, the Grasberg mine in Indonesia was hit by a massive mudflow of approximately 800,000 tonnes. Grasberg is the world’s second-largest copper mine, operated by Freeport-McMoRan. The incident resulted in fatalities, and equipment and installations were damaged.
Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure. Force majeure (French for Superior Force) means that a contractual obligation cannot be fulfilled due to an unforeseen event beyond a party’s control, for which that party cannot be held liable.
Analysts estimate the disruption has temporarily affected around 2–3% of global mined copper production. Current expectations indicate a gradual recovery, with operations not fully restored until around mid-2026.
What does this mean for the market?
Copper is essential for cables, connectors and wire harnesses. With supply constrained, prices are rising and lead times may extend.
Market analysts expect these conditions to persist through 2025, with recovery progressing step by step. The exact price path will depend on how quickly production resumes and on global demand.
Lumberg Nederland's advice
To limit the impact of price volatility and delivery delays, we recommend ordering well in advance — ideally covering the next 6 to 12 months. This improves supply assurance, supports cost control, and helps keep production schedules on track.
Practical tips
- Map your 6–12 month demand forecast
- Secure critical components early
- Consider alternative materials or configurations where appropriate
- Align call-off schedules and delivery timings early
Looking ahead together
We are closely monitoring the situation and will update our customers as developments unfold. Questions about long-term orders or tailored advice? Contact our team, we’re happy to help.
Sources and further reading
This article draws on the following international publications: